Market Update: Disruption

Harsher-than-expected tariffs triggered a market sell-off and ongoing uncertainty continues to cloud the global economic outlook.
Market Update - Bear and Bull Market

Earlier in the first quarter, CWM identified early signs of economic improvement that suggested conditions were becoming more supportive of increased risk-taking. At the same time, we emphasized the importance of patience, noting historically elevated market valuations and the potential for disruption stemming from anticipated tariff changes under the new Trump administration. As tariff policy materialized at more than twice the level expected by economists, markets responded with a sharp sell-off in the second quarter, validating our cautious stance.

Although the disruptive nature of tariff policy is now largely understood, its fluid implementation and indefinite timeline continue to create significant uncertainty. The economic impact remains unclear: while some anticipate slower growth and elevated inflation, others expect that aggressive trade policy may ultimately stimulate domestic production and lead to stronger long-term outcomes. Even in the optimistic scenario, as the graphic below demonstrates, the adjustment period is likely to be challenging for both the economy and asset values. In a more adverse outcome, the initial decline could be prolonged, with recovery more reliant on future policy reversals or government intervention. While the full economic impact of shifting tariff policy is still unfolding, broader consensus suggests that the longer the transition period lasts, the greater the potential cost to global growth and likely negative impact on market valuations.

Adjustment Costs Assoicated with Changing Policies

Caution remains warranted in an environment with significant uncertainties for the global economy. There are many ways to handle that uncertainty and the best way to discern which strategy is the best fit for you is in a conversation with a financial advisor. In that discussion, your CWM team will recommend one of two main approaches:

A disciplined risk taking strategy – such as CWM’s Risk-Adjusted Models or Global Allocation Model – which in the current environment will aim to systematically increase portfolio risk over time, assuming continued improvements in market data.

Immediate asset exposure – aligned with your individual risk tolerance, using strategies like the CWM Wealth Accumulator Model or Tactical Allocation Model.

Whether you prefer a measured, systematic approach, or a more direct alignment with the normal allocation bias of your risk tolerance, the CWM team is here to help you navigate this environment confidently and effectively. With discipline and flexibility, we strive to position your portfolio for success in both the near term and the years to come.

Do you know which strategies are right for you? To have a more in-depth conversation about this or our current market outlook, schedule a 30-minute meeting with a CWM advisor.

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CWM offers four different investment strategies for clients to use as either a standalone option or as a blend of strategies in their overall portfolio.

HOW IS EACH STRATEGY REACTING TO CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONS?

Risk-Adjusted Models (RAM): The implementation of higher-than-expected tariff rates has added a new layer of economic uncertainty to an already fragile global backdrop. Ongoing geopolitical conflicts and persistently high asset valuations continue to contribute to market instability, and price volatility is expected to remain a defining feature of investment markets throughout 2025. In response, the Risk-Adjusted Models continue to hold a market-neutral positioning, emphasizing income-producing assets with low correlation to equities, an approach that has historically helped buffer against heightened volatility. Allocations in higher-yielding assets with moderate equity correlation offer measured participation in potential market gains, while market-neutral assets are designed to deliver steady performance regardless of broader market direction. Recent adjustments have modestly reduced overall risk exposure, reinforcing a disciplined, defensive posture. Staying market-neutral in a time of uncertainty remains the most effective way to protect capital while seeking resilient sources of return. Learn more about our Risk-Adjusted models.

Global Allocation Model (GAM): The Global Allocation Model—also known as the “Go Anywhere Model”—is designed to identify opportunity in a wide range of market environments by targeting asset categories that have historically performed well under similar conditions. The model seeks to deliver returns above the risk-free rate and broader stock market benchmarks by maintaining flexibility across sectors, regions, and asset types. Over the past year, the strategy has transitioned from a defensive, income-focused posture to increased exposure in risk assets, particularly equities. Recent adjustments have emphasized stock positions with more attractive valuation metrics, with a growing allocation to international markets where relative value appears more compelling. The model’s current positioning reflects a more opportunistic approach, prioritizing long-term growth potential through selective, valuation-driven exposure. Learn more about our Global Allocation model.

Tactical Allocation Models (TAM): The Tactical Allocation Model (TAM) follows a disciplined macro allocation framework, balancing equities and bond or market-neutral assets in alignment with client strategy discussions. While the core mix remains grounded in these long-term targets, the model retains the flexibility to shift between defensive and aggressive positions within each category. Over the past quarter, the equity allocation has undergone a meaningful evolution, with a deliberate move away from higher-risk, high-valuation technology stocks. In their place, the model has incorporated more globally diversified holdings with a focus on dividends, as well as U.S. growth stocks that offer more attractive valuations—commonly known as “growth at a reasonable price.” This dividend-oriented approach is intended to help moderate volatility stemming from ongoing tariff disruptions. TAM’s positioning reflects a purposeful tilt toward global diversification and income generation, aiming to balance resilience with long-term growth potential. Learn more about our Tactical Allocation models.

Wealth Accumulator Models (WAM): Accumulator Models follow an “actively passive” investment philosophy, maintaining set stock-to-bond ratios regardless of shifting market conditions. While fully invested at all times, these strategies are actively managed through periodic rebalancing, recently more frequent due to heightened volatility, and through annual allocation reviews. By design, these models move closely with the broader market, participating in both its gains and losses. A primary benefit of this passive framework is its long-term orientation, with a time horizon of five years or more, which allows investors to look past daily market fluctuations and remain focused on future growth. Ongoing contributions during market downturns play a critical role in long-term success by enabling disciplined buying when valuations are more favorable. In volatile environments, staying invested and continuing contributions is the most effective way to turn uncertainty into long-term opportunity. Learn more about our Wealth Accumulator models.

All investments involve the risk of potential investment losses as well as the potential for investment gains. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This communication is informational only and is not a solicitation for investment advice.

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